With a bit more thunderstorm activity and a slight increase in winds, a tropical wave is a little more defined today as it passes over Hispaniola, Cuba tomorrow and Saturday and emerges into the Gulf of Mexico.
"Model guidance that is forecasting the system to develop into a tropical cyclone does not do that until it's actually very close to South Florida. At that point it would be a depression, most likely," says National Hurricane Center Senior Hurricane Specialist Dr. Jack Beven.
He adds, a lot of models are now shifting the track westward, putting it over the Gulf instead of centered over South Florida.
However, we could still see some heavy rain and maybe some gusty winds depending on its development.
Now that we're in August, the tropics should start heating up more frequently.
He predicts activity to increase starting in the next few weeks.